This brings the cumulative drop in property values since the onset of the conflict on February 28th to 10%

The pace of residential capital value declines in Dubai slowed further in June 2026, suggesting market calibration, while transaction volumes rebounded significantly month-on-month. The Dubai Residential ValuStrat Price Index (VPI) declined to 220 points, reflecting a softer monthly fall of 1% compared to previous months. This brings the cumulative drop in property values since the onset of the conflict on February 28th to 10%. However, overall annual growth remained broadly stable at 0.1%. Benchmark values eased to 293.7 points for villas and 169.1 points for apartments (Jan 2021 = 100).

Haider Tuaima, Managing Director and Head of Real Estate Research at ValuStrat, said: “June’s data highlights a vital shift in market dynamics, characterised by a softer 1% price decline running alongside a powerful resurgence in transactional activity. Capital values have registered a cumulative 10% adjustment since late February, yet the deceleration in monthly losses suggests the market is navigating the initial shock. More importantly, a major month-on-month surge of 46.8% in ready property sales, marking the strongest monthly growth in three years, indicates that capital adjustments are successfully unlocking pent-up investor demand.”

Villas vs apartments: Villa growth slows to 2% while apartment index drops 3%

annually Villa capital values declined 1.2% month-on-month, causing annual growth to slow down to 2%. The strongest yearly gains within the villa segment were concentrated in Jumeirah Islands (17.9%), Emirates Hills (10.7%), The Meadows (10%), The Villa (7.8%), and Reem (5.7%). By contrast, annual corrections were observed in Mudon (-5%), Victory Heights (-4%), International City (-3.2%), and Dubai Hills Estate (-2.8%). None of the monitored villa communities tracked by the VPI posted monthly gains during June. Currently, Dubai’s older freehold villa communities are, on average, valued 188% above post-pandemic levels and 76% above the 2014 market peak.

Apartment values edged down 0.6% month-on-month in June, leaving the apartment VPI 3% lower than the same period last year. The top annual apartment gainers included DIFC (8.1%), Dubai Sports City (6.6%), Dubai Silicon Oasis (6.4%), and Al Quoz Fourth (6%). Conversely, the sharpest annual contractions were felt in Burj Khalifa ( 16.7%), Jumeirah Beach Residence (-13%), and Town Square (-5.7%). International City Phase 2 (0.1%) was the only community to record a monthly marginal gain. Overall, older freehold apartment prices remain 70% above post pandemic levels but sit 8% below the previous market peak recorded in 2014.

Transactions: Sales volumes rebound sharply month-on-month

In a strong reversal from recent contractions, buyer activity rose significantly over the month. Ready-home transactions increased by 46.8% month-on-month, marking the strongest monthly rise recorded in three years, although overall volumes remained 23% lower year-on-year.

Oqood registrations for off-plan properties also climbed, rising 32% month-on-month, though remaining 16% lower annually. Off-plan sales continued to dominate market activity, accounting for 75% of all residential sales. Recorded official transactions for the month likely reflect underlying deals agreed from March 2026 onwards. Top off-plan locations were led by Azizi Venice (26.1%), followed by City of Arabia (5%), and Dubailand Residence Complex (4.3%). Ready property transactions were heavily clustered in Jumeirah Village Circle (11%), Jebel Ali Village (7%), and Business Bay (5.7%).

Prime homes: Luxury sales remain active and firmly concentrated

Despite broader shifts across mainstream market segments, the top-tier luxury segment maintained its steady performance. A total of 19 ready-property transactions exceeded AED 30 million in June, which included 5 high value deals priced above the AED 50 million threshold. These ultra-prime sales remained tightly concentrated within established luxury destinations, specifically Palm Jumeirah, Dubai Hills Estate, Emirates Hills, Al Barari, Jumeirah Islands, Downtown Dubai, and DIFC.

About VPI:

The ValuStrat Price Index (VPI) regularly marks to market a sample of properties that represent more than 90% of the Dubai residential and commercial markets and is built by our expert RICS Registered Valuers. ValuStrat Price Index offers a current read on market conditions because it is valuation-based rather than transaction-driven. While Dubai Land Department data reflects transactions that can lag as deals are agreed weeks or months earlier, VPI captures where the market stands today by incorporating real-time feedback from active participants. This makes it more responsive to shifts in sentiment and pricing trends.

About ValuStrat:

ValuStrat is an international consulting group providing Advisory, Valuations, Research, Transaction Advisory, Due Diligence, and Industrial Consulting across multiple sectors. With 45+ years of experience, a network of 17 offices in five countries, and a client base of 1,000+ organisations, ValuStrat supports governments, financial institutions, corporates, and SMEs.

The firm is one of the oldest valuation practices in the Middle East, a preferred provider to 120+ financial institutions in EMEA. It is ranked in the top category by the Dubai Land Department (DLD) and the Real Estate Regulatory Authority (RERA). Its consulting services in Strategy, M&A, Real Estate, and Banking have been recognised by Consultancy ME for two consecutive years.